Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

756
FXUS62 KILM 132335
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
735 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will remain focused along the coast as a
surface trough drops into the area Friday. By Saturday a
dissipated front will have moved through leading to much quieter
weather including a nearly rain-free Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection has generally followed the analyzed arc of instability
from the I-95 corridor, northward along and north of US-74, and
southward along the coastal areas of northeastern SC and
southeastern NC. Cold pools generated by earlier convection and
amble debris clouds should bring an early end to showers and storms
for much of the area. Georgetown and Williamsburg counties have
enjoyed some sunshine this afternoon and afternoon convection could
re-develop here through the late afternoon or early evening hours.

Low level moisture following widespread rain this afternoon could
lead to areas of fog on Wednesday morning. Inland areas, especially
along the I-95 corridor will have the best chance of seeing fog due
to weak boundary layer winds. Fog may favor low clouds near the
coast with light boundary layer winds continuing overnight. Mild and
humid lows in the low to mid 70s.

Ridging over the southeastern US will allow sunshine and warm
weather to return to portions of the area on Wednesday. With weak
mid level energy riding the northern periphery of a weak ridge,
afternoon showers and thunderstorms should be focused over NC.
Isolated convection will be possible over northeastern SC,
particularly near the sea breeze and inland along the Piedmont
trough, but chances should decrease to the south. Highs back in the
upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Prefrontal trough drops in Thursday night from the north. Some
slightly lower depends creep into interior counties where rain
chances should shut off esp after 06Z. Showers may linger along the
coast ahead of the boundary. Moisture appears to recover Friday esp
at the coast even though the winds never really turn back around.
And although there may still be some uncertainty as to where the
surface convergence maximizes Friday afternoon (Cape Fear Region
seems most likely) these areas may wind up seeing one last day of
healthy coverage of thunderstorms, some of which may have high
lightning flash rates esp if the more aggressive instability in WRF
soundings comes to pass.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The northerly flow component in the column deepens heading into
Saturday as a dissipating front pushes through from the north. Rain
chances will abate back to seasonable norms whereas Sunday dries out
altogether save for an isolated shower or storm on the sea breeze.
The mainly dry weather should last into Monday with only a gradual
increase in shower/storm coverage thereafter as the moisture creeps
back.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Persistence forecast really as recent trends show a decrease in
convection and debris cloudiness. The possibility of MVFR and
or IFR stratus/fog developing later tonight remains in place
with more convection expected Thursday.

Extended Outlook... Periodic flight restrictions are expected with
convection each afternoon and evening. Fog and low stratus could
also cause brief restrictions each morning as transition back to a
more typical summer-like weather pattern starting mid to late this
week. Unsettled weather may return this weekend behind a stalled
offshore frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... S and SW flow will remain light through late
Wednesday. Seas around 2-3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms over the
nearshore waters will persist through this evening, decreasing in
coverage on Wednesday morning.

Thursday night through Monday... Southwesterly winds will veer on
Friday as a front approaches but stalls. The more legit wind shift
comes with frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. There will
not be a big surge of wind/high pressure behind the front so even
wave faces shouldn`t steepen appreciably. Light NE post-frontall
winds will round out the period. The initial swells from Erin arrive
Sunday but their affects will be confined to rip current activity at
area beaches due to their weak nature in the more open waters. A bit
of a NE surge comes down the coast on Sunday but these larger waves
will tend to remain outside of 20 nm. The considerably longer
period/15second swells arrive late Monday but they will still be
somewhat diminutive.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM