Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

176
FXUS62 KILM 251040
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
640 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
QPF for the Sat afternoon thru Monday morning associated with
the approach and passage of a cold front has been revised.

Updated aviation discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Just 1 more day of above normal temperatures, low daytime
relative humidity, and with limited rain chances through early
Sat evening. This will all combine to continue the ongoing
drought and fire weather concerns.

2) Rain Saturday night into Sunday associated with a cold front
will not bring appreciable drought relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Just 1 more day of above normal temperatures,
low daytime relative humidity, and with limited rain chances
through early Sat evening. This will all combine to continue
the ongoing fire weather concerns.

Mid to upper 80s, possibly an isolated 90 degree reading, will
dominate Saturdays highs compared to normal highs generally
running in the upper 70s. This mornings lows and Sunday morning
lows will run in the 60s, with normal lows being in the low to
mid 50s. This afternoons RHS will drop into the 25 to 35 percent
range away from the coast. Combined with active SSW-SW winds
gusting 15 to 20 mph and the ongoing and widespread severe
drought, a fire danger statement is in effect for the Southeast
NC region for the increased risk for wildfires. Of note, a
State-Wide burn ban remains in effect for both NC and SC until
further notice. Thunderstorm activity will be isolated at best
during this aftn, mainly in the vicinity of the sea breeze. The
better chance for more widespread convection will occur later
this evening into Sun where it will partially alleviate the
immediate fire danger the next day, Sun.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain Saturday night into Sunday associated with
a cold front will not bring appreciable drought relief.

Weak low pressure ahead of an upper shortwave will bring rain to
the area Saturday night into early Sunday. There will be a
window between overnight activity and approaching cold front
from the north where instability will develop Sunday, especially
across coastal counties, and will likely pop-up storms during
the day into afternoon hours before cold front moves across late
in the day ushering in cooler and drier air. All in all though,
total rainfall won`t be enough for drought relief. Expected
rainfall ranges from 0.1" to isolated areas of 0.5+ inches, with
coastal Cape Fear having the best chance of seeing the higher
rainfall totals through Sunday night. With our area being 5-7
inches below normal in year to date rainfall, drought conditions
will persist until we get more appreciable rainfall, and more
frequent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR prevailing through at least late this
afternoon. The 15-25kt SW LLJ will keep sfc winds active enough
through this morning, ultimately preventing any widespread
ground fog development. Today a repeat of Fri, more or less,
with thin cirrus with diurnally driven cu mainly along and
inland of the sea breeze. Isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm should form once again in the vicinity of the sea
breeze but too low confidence to place in the TAFS. However, for
this evening, convective activity ahead of the approaching cold
front should begin affecting the inland terminals initially
then reaching the coastal terminals by late this evening or
around midnight. Have only included PROB30 groups to highlight.
But then do have prevailing light showers and fog after
midnight thru daybreak at all terminals in response to the
front either pushing thru or stalling nearly overhead. SW around
10 kt to dominate except with the sea breeze from midday thru
this evening where winds will back to the S-SSW 10-15 kt with
few/occasional g20 kt after its passage as it progresses inland.
Tonight look for winds to veer to the NW then N-NE as the cold
front pushes overhead. MVFR conditions expected to develop
across all terminals during the pre-dawn Sun hrs, progressing
from inland to the coast.

Extended Forecast...Convection associated with the cold front
could bring periodic MVFR conditions Sat night through Sun.
Flight restrictions from stratus/fog are possible Sun night and
Mon night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
A somewhat tightened sfc pg will exist between the center of the
retreating offshore high and the approaching cold front from
the NC-SC mainland. Will see the nocturnal SW LLJ fade after
daybreak but the remaining gradient should be enough for SW
winds 10-15 kt few gusts 20 kt especially 20-60nm out.
Nearshore, within 10 nm of the coast, winds back to the S to
SSW winds and increase to around 15 kt with more frequent gusts
to 20 kt in the aftn/evening due to the formation and inland
progression of the sea breeze. Some timing differences of the
models with respect to the CFP, so for now will position the
cold front right along the immediate coast come daybreak Sun.
Look for an increase in convection coverage across the waters,
both coastal and offshore waters later Sat evening and
especially overnight thru daybreak Sun. Seas will be governed by
locally produced wind chop at 5 or less second periods. An
underlying 1 foot E-ESE 9+ second period swell will continue.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...
A cold front will cross the waters on Sunday bringing veering
from SW all the way to N as a cool season-looking wedge of high
pressure noses in from the north. Winds increase a category with
FROPA but no headlines are anticipated. The veer may also kill
off what weak swell energy had been in place with only two
shorter period wind waves in the forecast by Monday. The wedge
washes out by Tuesday allowing for a return of southerly flow
that will likely be capped at just 10kt for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/VAO
DISCUSSION...DCH/VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO